True APS-C Flagship

drd1135

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Steve
I was looking at Thom Hogan's website and he mentioned the possibility of a companies releasing an APS-C flagship in 2022. Definitely Fuji (X-H2), and maybe Sony, Nikon, or Canon. I'm curious about the a market for such a thing, so I will consult the forum:
1. What features would such a camera need for you to give it serious consideration?
2. Given your answer to 1., how much would you be willing to pay?
3. What are your other perceptive insights about such a camera?
The problem for me is that what I would need to see to tempt me would cost more than I wanted to pay. For example, would the APS-C equivalents of the Nikon Z5 or maybe even Z6 need to cost less than their FF counterparts to sell well?
 
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I'd really like to see Sony release a full-sized SLR style APS-C instead of the rangefinder body.

1. Sony's world-class autofocus, and very few video features (unlikely), 24-26MP stacked sensor.
2. It would need to be less than the $1800 they charge for the A7c. Say...$1500.
3. Really shouldn't be much needed here for insights. I think it would sell like hotcakes. Their A77 A-mount was a decent seller, now with Sony having moved so far up the charts I think a mirrorless would be tough to compete with.
 
For me is was the same as the D5/D500.

I really needed the AF capability of the FX flagship, dual card, weather sealing and burst/continuous shooting that is comparable.

For the Z9 and a Z(D500) DX camera I would want the same - and mainly the AF capabilities. I find the 20mp sensors on the Z50 and Z fc to be very capable, but wouldn't mind having the 24mp upgrade. Now, on the D500, I could get 10 fps for a very long stream. Would like to have 15-20 fps for the Z DX equivalent. I'm not a video guy for the most part, so don't really care for myself on the video specs, but something close to the Z9 would be great. Not really needing on oversampled 8k, but a competent 4k that is competitive to the other DX camera makers out there.
 
I think that fast AF, like Sony's, depends heavily on the processor as well as the sensor and algorithms. So how much to stick the AF of the A7C ($1800) in an A6600-level ($1400) camera? It's a $400 difference in MSRP, but we need to know the price difference between the innards of the two bodies. A good chunk of that price difference is the FF sensor vs. the APS-C. Assuming the processor is the same in both cases, it comes down to mostly the cost of the sensor. If we assume similar capabilities for each, e.g., 24 MP, PDAF, etc., what's the cost of a FF sensor relative to APS-C in general. It also turns out that this info eluded my first Google search.

Edit: I corrected that Z7C in the second sentence. It was just a mistake and I wasn’t predicting that Sony would buy Nikon.
 
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Well, I can tell you that if Fuji hadn’t come out with the 70-300, I wouldn’t give them much thought (though I’m still not sure I’ll ever cross that river). I want light long lenses, even on a pro body. I suppose what Sony has for FE would work with the crop factor, but would they actually be overkill, or should then they rework pro lenses to take advantage of the APS-C form factor and price them well? Seems like the companies that offer FF and APS-C get themselves stuck in a position of not knowing what to do with the APS-C line. Make it too “pro,” and now they lose a FF upgrade sale. Make APS-C-specific pro glass, and now folks really won’t upgrade to FF.
 
I think that fast AF, like Sony's, depends heavily on the processor as well as the sensor and algorithms. So how much to stick the AF of the Z7C ($1800) in an A6600-level ($1400) camera? It's a $400 difference in MSRP, but we need to know the price difference between the innards of the two bodies. A good chunk of that price difference is the FF sensor vs. the APS-C. Assuming the processor is the same in both cases, it comes down to mostly the cost of the sensor. If we assume similar capabilities for each, e.g., 24 MP, PDAF, etc., what's the cost of a FF sensor relative to APS-C in general. It also turns out that this info eluded my first Google search.
I am not thinking in terms of A7c AF, I am thinking A1- A7 IV AF. Nothing else will do.

We don't need to know about the price. It really doesn't matter what the difference in cost is between them. Your question was:

2. Given your answer to 1., how much would you be willing to pay?

My answer was (and remains) $1500. Any more than that and I'd just end up with another A7 IV.
 
I am not thinking in terms of A7c AF, I am thinking A1- A7 IV AF. Nothing else will do.

We don't need to know about the price. It really doesn't matter what the difference in cost is between them. Your question was:



My answer was (and remains) $1500. Any more than that and I'd just end up with another A7 IV.
The A7C was said to have great AF but I haven’t seen comparisons to the new A7iv. As for price, I will be curious to see the price of the new Fuji XH2 and how well it sells.
 
Correct me if I am wrong but the use case for APSC flagships involves these factors:
  • Smaller sensors could be read faster (faster FPS)
  • Smaller mirrors and shutters could flap faster (faster FPS)
  • Edge-to-edge autofocus was possible to implement with smaller sensors
  • While the pro APSC bodies are not necessarily smaller than FF pro bodies, ASPC lenses can be made much smaller.
  • Telephoto oriented photography (birding, wildlife in particular) where one happily accepts more reach, more DoF for pixel count.
All these assumptions have started to fail as FF matured in 2010 onwards. Sensor tech and mirrorless revolution removed limitations that FF sensors may have faced at one point in time.

Those manufacturers who do both FF and APSC focus on FF so there aren't "good" compact APSC lens counterparts anymore. And if you put a FF lens on an APSC flagship, you quickly start to wonder if you couldn't get more flexibility simply using a FF flagship and cropping where applicable. This is what largely happened with Nikon D500 and the subsequent release of D850 after all.

All that's left are those manufacturers who don't do FF. Pentax and Fujifilm. I don't know what I'd do if pressed. After what I said, probably Nikon D500 still.

APSC is close to M4/3 in size. People love their Panasonics and Olympi. There you get these true size/weight savings. The downside is that you have to endure mirrorless crap. ;)
 
The A7C was said to have great AF but I haven’t seen comparisons to the new A7iv. As for price, I will be curious to see the price of the new Fuji XH2 and how well it sells.
The 7IV has the same focus ability as the A1. So far those are the only two. Keeping an eye out to see if Sony can use a firmware upgrade on some of their more popular models like the A9II and the 7RIV. I thought at one time they would, but with hints of an A9III and an A7RV floating around, maybe not.
 
Seems like the companies that offer FF and APS-C get themselves stuck in a position of not knowing what to do with the APS-C line. Make it too “pro,” and now they lose a FF upgrade sale. Make APS-C-specific pro glass, and now folks really won’t upgrade to FF.

I think this really nails the issue. And also one of the reasons that pushed Fuji into Medium Format instead of FF.

Another issue is that APS-C (and m43) are perceived as budget options so less money goes there.
 
It has to be like an APS-C Z9 without the built in grip. Nikon did this with the D2/D200, D3/D300, and D5/D500. They didn't when the D4 was released instead releasing a series of D7#00 models that had many D300 owners saying NO THANK YOU.

And size really plays very little in it. The D500 is actually just a little bigger and heavier than the D750 or D780 FX bodies. It's all build, speed, and controls with dual cards.
 
Pentax may soon own the APS-C DSLR market. I have no idea how good the AF speed is, but otherwise I’m sure the rest of camera is very good to excellent. Does anyone have one?
They may well with Nikon dropping DSLRs left and right. Canon is clearly moving toward mirrorless only and Sony has already done so. It wouldn't surprise me if Nikon followed suit 100%. That would pretty much leave Pentax on their own.

Here's a question: Is the day of the entry level ILC gone forever? Have cellphones overtaken the market to the extent that there's no longer room for a camera at the D3500 price point? Cameras like that were the gateway to photography, it'd be a shame to see them gone. Hopefully Panasonic won't abandon that market.
 
They may well with Nikon dropping DSLRs left and right. Canon is clearly moving toward mirrorless only and Sony has already done so. It wouldn't surprise me if Nikon followed suit 100%. That would pretty much leave Pentax on their own.

Here's a question: Is the day of the entry level ILC gone forever? Have cellphones overtaken the market to the extent that there's no longer room for a camera at the D3500 price point? Cameras like that were the gateway to photography, it'd be a shame to see them gone. Hopefully Panasonic won't abandon that market.
I went B&H and searched for mirrorless cameras and ranked them by price, low to high. I looked at $550-800 price range since the Canon 3500 was listed at $650, all USD. I found multiple Canon M series, Olympus EM10 iii and iv and E-PL10, Lumix G7 & G85, Sony A6000/6100, and ZV-E10. Not a bad collection of cameras upon which to build a hobby, speaking as one who has owned a lot of OMD (and still owns a bunch of Pens), the original M, an A6000, and a few older versions of the the Lumix selections. Like you, however, I worry what the bottom will look like in five years.

 
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Personally I think that unless Fuji, OM, and Panasonic completely fold (as in stop making what they are currently making AS IS) there will continue to be good entry level systems for years to come. Sure there are a couples lenses in each of these systems I'd love to see, but the reality is each system already has all I really need.

Flagship DLRS is another question. I might be a little bit of a Nikon Fanboy in some areas, but Nikon could keep making the D500 for a number of years and keep the Pro APS-C and advanced amateur markets relatively happy. The D500 is a beast that's not made to be small so the lack of small APS-C lenses doesn't really matter as much. It's built big and tough and handles just fine things like Nikon's 300/500 FEs or 200-500E to name a few.
 
The 7IV has the same focus ability as the A1. So far those are the only two. Keeping an eye out to see if Sony can use a firmware upgrade on some of their more popular models like the A9II and the 7RIV. I thought at one time they would, but with hints of an A9III and an A7RV floating around, maybe not.
That would be a huge improvement.
 
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